Election 2024

[Jay Lerner-Z]

Posted: 11/5/23 at 7:35pm

Presidential election. One year to go. November 5 2024. Literally the fate of the world will depend on this day.

Not necessarily for fun, but just to see how much attention should be paid to pundits and news reports... who do  you we think will win? Who will be the nominated candidates be? Will it be close?

Predictions, please. Then we can look back to see who was right, if anyone. It will be interesting. We might look very smart, or very stupid. Of course I'm sure this thread will sink without any response, but no harm to ask. Join me.

As of now, I myself am not even convinced that Joe Biden will run. He says he is, but that could just be to avoid being a lame duck, and to avoid the GOP targeting any potential Democrat frontrunner. He will have the plausible excuse of "health reasons" to drop out, allowing Kamala Harris or somebody else to swoop in and suck up Trump's oxygen.

Will Donald Trump be the GOP candidate, or will something radical happen to bar him from elected office ever again? This could mean another GOP candidate, with Trump receiving write-in votes from deluded MAGAists. Securing a win for Biden. Perhaps Donald Trump's plan will go smoothly, and the idiot masses will lead him to a decisive victory? Leading to arguably the darkest day in American history.

I am an optimist, so as of now, I still have unearned faith in the electorate... I'll go with comfortable win for Joe Biden.

Be brave, tell us what YOU think.

Updated On: 1/21/24 at 07:35 PM

[kdogg36]

Posted: 11/6/23 at 11:44am

I think we're stuck with Trump and Biden. I think Biden will win, with the states breaking exactly like they did in 2020, with maybe one or two exceptions. I also think the House and Senate will switch places in terms of majority control.

The New York Times just released a set of polls showing Trump with a narrow lead in several swing states. I am not too bothered by that, not only because we're still a year out and Trump will do all kinds of dumb things in the interim, but because polls have been regularly underestimating Democratic support since they overestimated it in 2020. We'll see in a couple of days if this holds for the off-year elections for the Virginia legislature and competitive governors' races in Kentucky and Mississippi(!).

[ACL2006]

Posted: 11/6/23 at 3:53pm

The thought of Biden vs. #45 again makes me nauseous. Two old farts battling each other again. Still hoping #45 suffers a legal downfall that prohibits him from running again. I don't think Biden opts to step down because that could spell an easy victory for the GOP. Harris isn't well liked and I don't see anyone else putting together a campaign quickly enough to defeat #45 or whoever ends up the candidate for the GOP. If it's the two old farts again, I do think Biden gets reelected just due to the legal issues currently facing #45.

Is it sad I'm just looking forward to the 2028 election instead?

[Jay Lerner-Z]

Posted: 11/6/23 at 5:36pm

Any guesses on who Trump's running mate will be? Matt Gaetz... Marjorie Taylor Greene... but I think it will be Donald Junior.

[ACL2006]

Posted: 11/6/23 at 6:05pm

Jay Lerner-Z said: "Any guesses on who Trump's running mate will be? Matt Gaetz... Marjorie Taylor Greene... but I think it will be Donald Junior."

Lauren Boebert? Nikki Haley? Vivek Ramaswamy? He has a long list of MAGA crazies to pick from. He probably picks a female though to battle Harris. MTG is an absolute trainwreck and could derail any hope of winning in 2024.

[fosterfan2]

Posted: 11/6/23 at 6:50pm

That's why I hope he picks her. Biden is old,but I'd rather have him than Trump again.

[Jay Lerner-Z]

Posted: 11/6/23 at 6:57pm

I think he can only pick someone who maintains that the 2020 election was stolen. Which rules out anyone sane. A sad state of affairs. I can't see it being Nikki Haley, she is too smart and knows she would lose all credibility forever more.

[uncageg]

Posted: 11/11/23 at 3:58am

fosterfan2 said: "That's why I hope he picks her. Biden is old,but I'd rather have him than Trump again."

 

Trump is only 3 years younger than Biden. So age should not be a factor with these two. If Trump gets back in he will be among the 25 oldest world leaders. 

 

[South Florida]

Posted: 11/11/23 at 11:13am

Haley vs. Biden in a nail biter.

 

[Zeppie2022]

Posted: 11/11/23 at 4:51pm

"Haley vs. Biden in a nail biter"

That would be interesting matchup. Haley would take away one of the usual attacks on Republican candidates by being a woman and not white. She would do much better with independent voters who in 2020 showed their disdain of Trump's personality among other things. Her view on abortion is not as "hard line" as other Republican candidates. If she were the nominee, I am sure the campaign slogan would be about having a "new generation" of leadership (she is in her early 50's) in the country. I believe she has spoken about having mental acuity tests for older politicians. She has good resume for the job for somebody who is not the currently the POTUS - ha ha. Executive experience as Governor of SC and foreign policy experience by being UN Ambassador.

Biden is the incumbent and that has plenty of advantages in fund raising. The media/big tech leans left and will be behind him just like 2020. You can already hand him the electoral votes from the two big states (NY and California) giving him a good head start. People tend to like Biden personally although more people than ever are getting concerned about his age. The debates in 2024 will be huge because of the age issue.

2024 Prediction - Republican primary voters are fairly stupid and will nominate Trump. The same electorate in 2020 who were tired of all the Trump "bluster" and "drama" still can't stand him. The current polls show that people in this country currently think we are headed in the wrong direction which is usually not good for an incumbent. I don't think this country is going to be much better off in 2024 than now. Due to that and 3rd party candidates this will be a bunch closer in 2020.  I predict Trump wins two more states (Wisconsin & Arizona) but still loses the electoral college vote to Biden in 285-253. Biden will still easily win the popular vote. 

Note** I will say I think there will be 25-30% chance Biden is not the nominee and says he will not run again due to health reasons. 

[ACL2006]

Posted: 11/11/23 at 7:28pm

I think Haley vs. Biden would be a win for the GOP. The election is now less than a year away. If the Democrats don't want Biden running, they need to hurry up and find their nominee that isn't Harris.

[Jay Lerner-Z]

Posted: 11/11/23 at 7:56pm

I think the best hope for Nikki Haley's presidential ambitions is a Biden win next year. After 8 years of Democrat, the tide will definitely turn in favor of GOP in 2028. The only thing stopping her would be getting the nomination. With Trump out of the way, she has a better chance. I think she is the most likely woman to be the first female president. Apart from Kamala perhaps, if Biden does get back in I genuinely see him struggling to last until age 86. A GOP female candidate has the advantage of having all misogynist-prone voters already on their side.

[Jay Lerner-Z]

Posted: 11/11/23 at 7:59pm

P.S. If it actually does turn out to be Haley against Biden in 2024, I think Nikki would win comfortably. A semblance of sanity is all it would take for swing voters to switch back to GOP.

[ACL2006]

Posted: 11/12/23 at 9:59am

Jay Lerner-Z said: "P.S. If it actually does turn out to be Haley against Biden in 2024, I think Nikki would win comfortably. A semblance of sanity is all it would take for swing voters to switch back to GOP."

As well as unhappy Independent & Dem voters that could swing for Haley's vote.

[Jay Lerner-Z]

Posted: 1/21/24 at 7:56pm

DeSantis out, humiliated. Does Nikki Haley actually have any chance of getting the ticket? Why bother to keep going? I’m guessing she is hoping for Trump to either die or be removed by legal means.

[Zeppie2022]

Posted: 1/22/24 at 10:01am

Congratulations to the Democrats. This election cycle is playing out perfectly. Go after Trump with legal issues and getting on state ballots to rile up the MAGA nuts. They come out in force and lead the way to him getting the nomination again. Democrats laugh their head off because they know the same independent voters who hated Trump in 2020 still despise him personally and will hurt him in the general election. Republicans can't even make the age of Biden an issue with Trump only three years younger. Earlier in this thread I made the case for Haley getting nomination, but Republican primary voters are just plain stupid. There are countless races Republicans have lost because of the candidates they select are horrible and get clobbered in the general election. Seriously, who in their right mind thought Dr. Oz and Hershall Walker were good candidates -lol. 

So, it looks like to me this country is going to be led again by old man in his 80's which is sad. Wouldn't it be nice to have a new generation of leaders for this country like we did in the 60's when JFK replaced Ike. 

If Trump clobbers Haley in NH and SC, then her campaign is over.

[Jay Lerner-Z]

Posted: 1/22/24 at 1:02pm

Democrats are not going after Trump on legal issues as some kind of election strategy. He is a dangerous criminal and is simply being held to account as the risk to society that he is.

By the independent and neutral justice system.

[South Florida]

Posted: 1/22/24 at 7:43pm

Yet Dump still is the betting choice by legal bookies. It's appeal is shocking and I still feel like I've been made to watch a really long, far fetched, 8 year movie in some kind of purgatory.

[Zeppie2022]

Posted: 1/22/24 at 10:03pm

"Democrats are not going after Trump on legal issues as some kind of election strategy. He is a dangerous criminal and is simply being held to account as the risk to society that he is.

By the independent and neutral justice system."

Really. Any bets on the party of all the DA's who have brought charges against Trump? If you can prove me wrong than I will be happy to concede to you it is not political.

[Zeppie2022]

Posted: 1/22/24 at 10:10pm

"Yet Dump still is the betting choice by legal bookies. It's appeal is shocking and I still feel like I've been made to watch a really long, far fetched, 8 year movie in some kind of purgatory."

It is a sad commentary that Trump will be the nominee again. The American people always whine about the quality of candidates but look who they select to run in the general election. Even if you might agree with some of his policies how can you overlook his egomaniac and childish behavior. Is that really who you want to be leader of the free world? I can't tell you how disgusted I am that in 2024 we are going to have election between a man in his 80's who I believe is senile and a man who is 78 and I think is a scumbag. 

[ACL2006]

Posted: 1/25/24 at 4:31pm

Trump needs to worry about the Independent voters. The majority of Independents voted for Nikki Haley in New Hampshire. That should be a major red flag for the GOP.

[Jay Lerner-Z]

Posted: 1/30/24 at 4:28pm

Zeppie,

If all of the DAs are Democrat, that should tell you more about the GOP than it does about the DAs. All Republicans facing election everywhere cower in fear at the feet of Trump, of COURSE they would not prosecute.

[Zeppie2022]

Posted: 1/30/24 at 9:45pm

"All Republicans facing election everywhere cower in fear at the feet of Trump, of COURSE they would not prosecute."

If true, that shows you the sad state of the Republican party. Why fear Trump? Most candidates he backs lose in the general election. Trump basically handed the majority of the Senate back to the Democrats with his handpicked loser candidates in Georgia. He has been telling Haley to drop out of the race after Iowa caucus and she has said "hell no". Sadly, Trump is trouncing her in SC polls so Haley will drop out then, hard to make a case for your candidacy when you lose your home state.  

[Jay Lerner-Z]

Posted: 1/30/24 at 11:09pm

The Republican Party is in a sad state indeed. I’d go so far as to pronounce it dead. It’s the “MAGA” party now, completely detached from reality. A cult.

[Zeppie2022]

Posted: 1/31/24 at 9:26am

"The Republican Party is in a sad state indeed. I’d go so far as to pronounce it dead. It’s the “MAGA” party now, completely detached from reality. A cult."

It is not dead yet, it will be after Nov 2024 with another Trump loss. What these MAGA idiots do not understand is the only reason Trump won in 2016 was that Hillary Clinton was even more unlikeable than Trump personally to many voters which is amazing.